Principles of Finance ACST603


Tutorial 5, Week 5 Share valuation using the DDM and PE multiple methods

Homework questions.

Question 473  market capitalisation of equity

The below screenshot of Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (CBA) details were taken from the Google Finance website on 7 Nov 2014. Some information has been deliberately blanked out.

Image of CBA on Google finance on 7 Nov 2014

What was CBA's market capitalisation of equity?



Question 905  market capitalisation of equity, PE ratio, payout ratio

The below graph shows the computer software company Microsoft's stock price (MSFT) at the market close on the NASDAQ on Friday 1 June 2018.

Based on the screenshot above, which of the following statements about MSFT is NOT correct? MSFT's:



Question 451  DDM

The first payment of a constant perpetual annual cash flow is received at time 5. Let this cash flow be ##C_5## and the required return be ##r##.

So there will be equal annual cash flows at time 5, 6, 7 and so on forever, and all of the cash flows will be equal so ##C_5 = C_6 = C_7 = ...##

When the perpetuity formula is used to value this stream of cash flows, it will give a value (V) at time:



Question 517  DDM

A stock is expected to pay its next dividend of $1 in one year. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. So the first dividend of $1 will be in one year, the year after that $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later $1.0404 (=1*(1+0.02)^2) and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.



Question 518  DDM

A stock just paid a dividend of $1. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1) will be in one year, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.0404 (=1*(1+0.02)^2), and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.



Question 519  DDM

A stock is just about to pay a dividend of $1 tonight. Future annual dividends are expected to grow by 2% pa. The next dividend of $1 will be paid tonight, and the year after that the dividend will be $1.02 (=1*(1+0.02)^1), and a year later 1.0404 (=1*(1+0.04)^2) and so on forever.

Its required total return is 10% pa. The total required return and growth rate of dividends are given as effective annual rates.

Calculate the current stock price.



Question 4  DDM

For a price of $13, Carla will sell you a share paying a dividend of $1 in one year and every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa.

Would you like to Carla's share or politely ?


Question 7  DDM

For a price of $1040, Camille will sell you a share which just paid a dividend of $100, and is expected to pay dividends every year forever, growing at a rate of 5% pa.

So the next dividend will be ##100(1+0.05)^1=$105.00##, and the year after it will be ##100(1+0.05)^2=110.25## and so on.

The required return of the stock is 15% pa.

Would you like to the share or politely ?


Question 528  DDM, income and capital returns

The perpetuity with growth formula, also known as the dividend discount model (DDM) or Gordon growth model, is appropriate for valuing a company's shares. ##P_0## is the current share price, ##C_1## is next year's expected dividend, ##r## is the total required return and ##g## is the expected growth rate of the dividend.

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The below graph shows the expected future price path of the company's shares. Which of the following statements about the graph is NOT correct?

Saw tooth graph of stock price path



Question 264  DDM

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

###P_0=\frac{d_1}{r-g}###

A stock pays dividends annually. It just paid a dividend, but the next dividend (##d_1##) will be paid in one year.

According to the DDM, what is the correct formula for the expected price of the stock in 2.5 years?



Question 28  DDM, income and capital returns

The following equation is the Dividend Discount Model, also known as the 'Gordon Growth Model' or the 'Perpetuity with growth' equation.

### P_{0} = \frac{C_1}{r_{\text{eff}} - g_{\text{eff}}} ###

What would you call the expression ## C_1/P_0 ##?



Question 201  DDM, income and capital returns

The following is the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) used to price stocks:

###P_0=\dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

If the assumptions of the DDM hold and the stock is fairly priced, which one of the following statements is NOT correct? The long term expected:



Question 497  income and capital returns, DDM, ex dividend date

A stock will pay you a dividend of $10 tonight if you buy it today. Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by 5% pa, so the next dividend after the $10 one tonight will be $10.50 in one year, then in two years it will be $11.025 and so on. The stock's required return is 10% pa.

What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately?



Question 748  income and capital returns, DDM, ex dividend date

A stock will pay you a dividend of $2 tonight if you buy it today.

Thereafter the annual dividend is expected to grow by 3% pa, so the next dividend after the $2 one tonight will be $2.06 in one year, then in two years it will be $2.1218 and so on. The stock's required return is 8% pa.

What is the stock price today and what do you expect the stock price to be tomorrow, approximately?



Question 289  DDM, expected and historical returns, ROE

In the dividend discount model:

###P_0 = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}###

The return ##r## is supposed to be the:



Question 36  DDM, perpetuity with growth

A stock pays annual dividends which are expected to continue forever. It just paid a dividend of $10. The growth rate in the dividend is 2% pa. You estimate that the stock's required return is 10% pa. Both the discount rate and growth rate are given as effective annual rates. Using the dividend discount model, what will be the share price?



Question 40  DDM, perpetuity with growth

A stock is expected to pay the following dividends:

Cash Flows of a Stock
Time (yrs) 0 1 2 3 4 ...
Dividend ($) 0.00 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 ...
 

After year 4, the annual dividend will grow in perpetuity at 5% pa, so;

  • the dividend at t=5 will be $1.15(1+0.05),
  • the dividend at t=6 will be $1.15(1+0.05)^2, and so on.

The required return on the stock is 10% pa. Both the growth rate and required return are given as effective annual rates.

What will be the price of the stock in three and a half years (t = 3.5)?



Question 441  DDM, income and capital returns

A fairly valued share's current price is $4 and it has a total required return of 30%. Dividends are paid annually and next year's dividend is expected to be $1. After that, dividends are expected to grow by 5% pa in perpetuity. All rates are effective annual returns.

What is the expected dividend income paid at the end of the second year (t=2) and what is the expected capital gain from just after the first dividend (t=1) to just after the second dividend (t=2)? The answers are given in the same order, the dividend and then the capital gain.



Question 763  multi stage growth model, DDM

A stock is expected to pay its first dividend of $20 in 3 years (t=3), which it will continue to pay for the next nine years, so there will be ten $20 payments altogether with the last payment in year 12 (t=12).

From the thirteenth year onward, the dividend is expected to be 4% more than the previous year, forever. So the dividend in the thirteenth year (t=13) will be $20.80, then $21.632 in year 14, and so on forever. The required return of the stock is 10% pa. All rates are effective annual rates. Calculate the current (t=0) stock price.



Question 217  NPV, DDM, multi stage growth model

A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $15 in one year (t=1), then $25 for 9 years after that (payments at t=2 ,3,...10), and on the 11th year (t=11) the dividend will be 2% less than at t=10, and will continue to shrink at the same rate every year after that forever. The required return of the stock is 10%. All rates are effective annual rates.

What is the price of the stock now?



Question 50  DDM, stock pricing, inflation, real and nominal returns and cash flows

Most listed Australian companies pay dividends twice per year, the 'interim' and 'final' dividends, which are roughly 6 months apart.

You are an equities analyst trying to value the company BHP. You decide to use the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) as a starting point, so you study BHP's dividend history and you find that BHP tends to pay the same interim and final dividend each year, and that both grow by the same rate.

You expect BHP will pay a $0.55 interim dividend in six months and a $0.55 final dividend in one year. You expect each to grow by 4% next year and forever, so the interim and final dividends next year will be $0.572 each, and so on in perpetuity.

Assume BHP's cost of equity is 8% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective rates. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa.

What is the current price of a BHP share?



Question 535  DDM, real and nominal returns and cash flows, stock pricing

You are an equities analyst trying to value the equity of the Australian telecoms company Telstra, with ticker TLS. In Australia, listed companies like Telstra tend to pay dividends every 6 months. The payment around August is called the final dividend and the payment around February is called the interim dividend. Both occur annually.

  • Today is mid-March 2015.
  • TLS's last interim dividend of $0.15 was one month ago in mid-February 2015.
  • TLS's last final dividend of $0.15 was seven months ago in mid-August 2014.

Judging by TLS's dividend history and prospects, you estimate that the nominal dividend growth rate will be 1% pa. Assume that TLS's total nominal cost of equity is 6% pa. The dividends are nominal cash flows and the inflation rate is 2.5% pa. All rates are quoted as nominal effective annual rates. Assume that each month is exactly one twelfth (1/12) of a year, so you can ignore the number of days in each month.

Calculate the current TLS share price.



Question 488  income and capital returns, payout policy, payout ratio, DDM

Two companies BigDiv and ZeroDiv are exactly the same except for their dividend payouts.

BigDiv pays large dividends and ZeroDiv doesn't pay any dividends.

Currently the two firms have the same earnings, assets, number of shares, share price, expected total return and risk.

Assume a perfect world with no taxes, no transaction costs, no asymmetric information and that all assets including business projects are fairly priced and therefore zero-NPV.

All things remaining equal, which of the following statements is NOT correct?



Question 333  DDM, time calculation

When using the dividend discount model, care must be taken to avoid using a nominal dividend growth rate that exceeds the country's nominal GDP growth rate. Otherwise the firm is forecast to take over the country since it grows faster than the average business forever.

Suppose a firm's nominal dividend grows at 10% pa forever, and nominal GDP growth is 5% pa forever. The firm's total dividends are currently $1 billion (t=0). The country's GDP is currently $1,000 billion (t=0).

In approximately how many years will the company's total dividends be as large as the country's GDP?



Question 358  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Estimate the Chinese bank ICBC's share price using a backward-looking price earnings (PE) multiples approach with the following assumptions and figures only. Note that the renminbi (RMB) is the Chinese currency, also known as the yuan (CNY).

  • The 4 major Chinese banks ICBC, China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of China (BOC) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) are comparable companies;
  • ICBC 's historical earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 0.74;
  • CCB's backward-looking PE ratio is 4.59;
  • BOC 's backward-looking PE ratio is 4.78;
  • ABC's backward-looking PE ratio is also 4.78;

Note: Figures sourced from Google Finance on 25 March 2014. Share prices are from the Shanghai stock exchange.



Question 348  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Estimate the US bank JP Morgan's share price using a price earnings (PE) multiples approach with the following assumptions and figures only:

  • The major US banks JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citi Group (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are comparable companies;
  • JP Morgan Chase's historical earnings per share (EPS) is $4.37;
  • Citi Group's share price is $50.05 and historical EPS is $4.26;
  • Wells Fargo's share price is $48.98 and historical EPS is $3.89.

Note: Figures sourced from Google Finance on 24 March 2014.



Question 341  Multiples valuation, PE ratio

Estimate Microsoft's (MSFT) share price using a price earnings (PE) multiples approach with the following assumptions and figures only:

  • Apple, Google and Microsoft are comparable companies,
  • Apple's (AAPL) share price is $526.24 and historical EPS is $40.32.
  • Google's (GOOG) share price is $1,215.65 and historical EPS is $36.23.
  • Micrsoft's (MSFT) historical earnings per share (EPS) is $2.71.

Source: Google Finance 28 Feb 2014.



Question 750  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Itau Unibanco is a major listed bank in Brazil with a market capitalisation of equity equal to BRL 85.744 billion, EPS of BRL 3.96 and 2.97 billion shares on issue.

Banco Bradesco is another major bank with total earnings of BRL 8.77 billion and 2.52 billion shares on issue.

Estimate Banco Bradesco's current share price using a price-earnings multiples approach assuming that Itau Unibanco is a comparable firm.

Note that BRL is the Brazilian Real, their currency. Figures sourced from Google Finance on the market close of the BVMF on 24 July 2015.



Question 463  PE ratio, Multiples valuation

Private equity firms are known to buy medium sized private companies operating in the same industry, merge them together into a larger company, and then sell it off in a public float (initial public offering, IPO).

If medium-sized private companies trade at PE ratios of 5 and larger listed companies trade at PE ratios of 15, what return can be achieved from this strategy?

Assume that:

  • The medium-sized companies can be bought, merged and sold in an IPO instantaneously.
  • There are no costs of finding, valuing, merging and restructuring the medium sized companies. Also, there is no competition to buy the medium-sized companies from other private equity firms.
  • The large merged firm's earnings are the sum of the medium firms' earnings.
  • The only reason for the difference in medium and large firm's PE ratios is due to the illiquidity of the medium firms' shares.
  • Return is defined as: ##r_{0→1} = (p_1-p_0+c_1)/p_0## , where time zero is just before the merger and time one is just after.